The Outlook for Operators in 5 Charts

Traveler demand for experiences continues, but more operators are concerned about the outlook as growth slows in 2024, finds Arival’s latest report

Two people snorkeling underwater, wearing masks and looking at the camera. They are surrounded by aquatic plants and bubbles, creating a vibrant underwater scene.

The global travel experiences sector continues to expand, but the outlook has become more and more uncertain as growth slows.

Earlier this month at Arival 360 | San Diego, I shared exclusive insights on the state of our industry from our recently released Global Operator Landscape: The State of Experiences (3rd Ed.). Here are five key charts from that report to help explain the state of travel experiences and what’s to come.  

Arival's October 2024 report cover on global tour operators, featuring images of snorkelers and amusement park attractions.

Five Charts for the State of Travel Experiences

1. The Recovery Is Here…

The global travel experiences sector is projected to recover fully on a revenue basis in 2024. We will just surpass the pre-pandemic peak of 2019. However, some of that revenue recovery was driven by rising prices and inflation. On a bookings basis, the industry is still shy of 2019. 

A bar graph showing Global Experiences Revenue from 2019 to 2024. The graph indicates a sharp drop in 2020, followed by a gradual recovery, with 2024 projected to exceed 2019 levels at 101% of the 2019 baseline.
A quote by Douglas Quinby, CEO of Arival, that states: The global travel experiences sector is expected to recover fully on a revenue basis in 2024

2. …but Growth Has Slowed

After three strong years of very welcome recovery following the pandemic, travelers are pulling back. Arival projects revenue growth of 10% in 2024 and bookings growth of 7%. 

A line graph depicting the annual change in Global Experiences Revenue from 2020 to 2024. It shows a sharp decline of about 75% in 2020, followed by a significant recovery in 2021 and 2022, then a gradual decrease in growth rate for 2023 and 2024.

3. Travelers Prioritize Experiences

While our industry’s overall growth in 2024 is considerably slower than in the previous three years, it remains well ahead of travel overall. Various travel industry sources project global industry growth at just 4%. This is a strong indicator that even amid slowing demand overall and a softening economy, travelers are placing a premium on tours, activities, attractions and experiences. 

Travel vs Travels Experiences graph Projected global revenue growth in 2024, Travel have a 4% growth while travel experiences will grow by 10%
A quote by Douglas Quinby, CEO of Arival, that states, Even amid slowing demand overall and a softening economy, travelers are placing a preium on tours, activities, attractions and experiences.

4. More Operators Feeling the Pinch

Overall demand for experiences may be strong, but many operators are not feeling it. Revenge travel may be over, but the impacts of inflation are not, and many operators are feeling the pinch.

According to the Global Operator Landscape: The State of Experiences (3rd Ed.), a majority of operators worldwide report that sales are flat or down in 2024 vs. 2023. This is a significant shift from 2023, when most operators reported strong growth.

A pie chart showing operator performance in 2024 compared to 2023. 43% of operators are up, while 57% are flat or down.

5. Operator Optimism Dims

Not surprisingly, operators’ overall sentiment about the next 12 to 18 months weakened. Arival tracks operators’ overall optimism about the future, and the Arival Operator Optimism Index has slipped considerably from 80% in 2022 to just over 60% in 2024. 

A bar graph showing the Arival Operator Optimism Index declining from 2022 to 2024. The index was around 80% in 2022, dropped to about 75% in 2023, and further decreased to about 63% in 2024.

What This Means: Five Key Takeaways 

  1. Performance has been very uneven. Some markets and many operators have performed exceptionally well in 2024. Connect with your local destination marketing organization (DMO) and other operators to see how business is faring in your region. If 2024 hasn’t lived up to expectations, know that you’re not alone.
A quote by Douglas Quinby, CEO of Arival, that states, If 2024 hasn't lived up to expectations, know that you're not alone
  1. Be prepared for a slower 2025. Our industry is optimistic by nature, but you should have plans in place for a slower close to 2024 and a slower start to 2025. Join our upcoming Arival | Elevate session on 24 October to learn more about strategic planning.
  2. Travelers are more price-sensitive. Revenge travel is over, and travelers are feeling the pricing pinch. Consider strategies to lure in travelers with add-ons or incentives. This Arival | Elevate Session from 2023 covers operator pricing strategy in-depth. 
  3. Target the affluent traveler. It’s one segment that seems insulated from the effects of the economy. The well-heeled continue to travel and prioritize experiences. Consider private and VIP offerings if you don’t already. Arival’s Affluent Experiences Traveler Report is your guide to attracting this segment.
  4. What goes down, will come up. Our industry is notoriously cyclical. We’re dependent entirely on the disposable income of consumers. But the underlying fundamentals of our industry – the demand for experiences – remains as strong as ever, especially with the rising generation of 18-34-year olds. This is a tremendous, long-term tail-wind for all of us.   

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Learn More in the Latest Outlook for Operators Report

Arival’s Global Operator Landscape: The State of Experiences (3rd Ed.) report is based on a survey of more than 7,000 operators worldwide. The third edition of Arival’s Global Operator Landscape research series, this new report provides a comprehensive view of the state and structure of tour, activity and attraction marketplace, with key trends and benchmarks for operators of all categories and sizes. 

Arival's October 2024 report cover on global tour operators, featuring images of snorkelers and amusement park attractions.

The Global Operator Landscape: The State of Experiences (3rd Ed.) is supported by our Launch Partner GetYourGuide, strategic insights partners Catalan Tourist Board, Expian, Rezgo, TripWorks and Viator, and more than 40 fielding partners. See the full list and get your copy of the full report here.  

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