Making Sense of This Recovery

The talking points at Arival Activate in Berlin and IPW in Orlando were all in sync: travel is back and travelers are returning to tours and attractions in droves, but deeper discussions revealed a rebound that’s anything but even and an outlook with an undercurrent of concern

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The simple story is one we all want to hear: everything is getting back to normal. There were plenty of attendees at Arival | Activate who were riding high on travel’s return. 

The opening session set the tone. “Today, basically in all of the major geos that we operate, we are now double to triple our pre-Covid numbers,” said GetYourGuide CEO Johannes Reck

The digital shift to online booking has clearly benefited OTAs, with speakers from Headout and Tiqets both saying that bookings are up well over 2019. Tripadvisor reported that its Experience & Dining division, which includes Viator, is up 15% vs. Q1 2019. 

Many operators are performing well, especially in key destinations such as Greece, Italy and Spain. Leaders from Greek operators Alternative Athens and Key Tours, Spain and Latin America operator Amigo Tours, and multi-destination tour operator City Wonders all indicated bookings were well ahead of pre-pandemic levels. 

Not Everyone’s Up Up Up

The economic benefits of the return of travel have hardly been even, and many operators remain well behind 2019. In a recently completed Arival survey of 250 visitor attractions and tour and activity operators supported by Tiqets, a majority of respondents were either on par with 2019 or above, with an average projected sales gain of 10%. 

However, one in three respondents said 2022 bookings would be below 2019, with an average shortfall of 30%. (Arival will publish the full results from this survey later in June.)

Making Sense of This Recovery Douglas Quinby Arival

This uneven return revealed itself in many private, off-stage discussions. Several attendees — both operators and distribution companies — said their overall business was still short of 2019 levels. 

Krzysztof Balon, CEO and co-founder of AT Cracow in Poland, spoke openly during the general session at Arival | Activate about the challenges facing his market because of the war in Ukraine. He said their business was still at about 25% of 2019.  

And he’s not alone. Destinations are coming back very unevenly. The war is casting a shadow over Eastern Europe, while inflation and rising gas prices are posing a risk to traveler’s spending power. 

The Labor Crunch Is Slowing Growth and Squeezing Profits

Yes travel is back and much of the experiences sector is benefitting, but there’s a catch. Even those who are well up over 2019 are now struggling with fulfilling demand. Several operators speaking at Arival | Activate said hiring and retention is the number one issue, with guides and drivers in high demand. Too many left the industry during the pandemic and not enough have returned. 

Pandemic Winners may Finish Second or Third in the Recovery

Businesses that outperformed during the pandemic — outdoor activities, watersports and attractions in secondary destinations and drive markets — are experiencing a slowdown, or at least a deceleration of the growth they saw over the past two years. 

Some watersports operators in the Southeast U.S., which saw demand skyrocket when travelers couldn’t go to New York, Europe or the Caribbean, are now reporting a slowdown in 2022. They may still be above 2019 booking volumes, but as travel starts to return to more pre-pandemic patterns, the sky-high growth of some industry segments may be coming back down to earth. 

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David West, executive director of destination marketing for Herschend Family Entertainment, which operates several amusement parks, water parks and aquariums, acknowledged as much when speaking at the Arival Attractions Outlook session at IPW last week in Orlando. The pandemic provided an uncharacteristic bump in visitation, and 2022 may fall short of 2021 as travel becomes more “normal”.

West was more concerned about inflation and rising gas prices, which could eat into Americans’ appetite for road trips as well as their willingness to spend on travel and leisure activities. He said they are already making contingency plans for the possibility of a recession in the U.S. 

Travel in 2022 may be Recession Proof, but Not Impervious to Inflation

After two years of little to no travel, it doesn’t seem that travelers are going to let the fear of a recession stop them from clicking the book button. Perhaps the biggest concern among OTAs and operators right now is being able to fulfill all of the demand.

However, rising inflation and interest rates along with the significant drop in global stock markets could put a dent on travelers’ purchasing power. Operators at Arival | Activate Berlin indicated that travelers continued to spend more, and that more expensive, higher-end tours and experiences were booking out faster than mid-market tours.

However, global macroeconomic trends could result in travelers taking fewer or shorter trips, spending less in destination and doing fewer activities. Operators should be prepared for the possibility of a downturn in the second half of 2022.

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WHAT'S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ARIVAL | ACTIVATE EDINBURGH AND ARIVAL 360 | VALENCIA AND WHICH SHOULD I ATTEND?

Since 2019, Arival has hosted one major event in Europe each year. For 2024-2025, we’re thrilled to offer two exciting events: Arival 360 | Valencia and Arival | Activate Edinburgh. Here’s a quick comparison to help you decide which event to attend—or why you might want to come to both:

Arival 360 | Valencia (28-30 April 2025)
  • Scope: Flagship European Event with a global reach; up to 30% of attendees from outside Europe, including the U.S., Middle East, LATAM, and APAC.
  • Audience: Experience creators, tech and distribution companies, and industry professionals from around the world.
  • Arival Theater Content: Global topics including: over-tourism and sustainability, technology, distribution, European consumer and operator trends.
  • Breakout Sessions: In-depth workshops on operational best practices, product expansion, AI, channel management, marketing tech, a Spain-specific track and an Innovation Showcase highlighting the most tech-savvy companies in our industry.
  • Networking: Connect with leading OTAs and distribution companies, and build valuable partnerships.
  • Location: Valencia, a stunning coastal city offering rich cultural experiences.
  • Attendees: Approximately 800, providing extensive networking opportunities.
Arival | Activate Edinburgh (23-25 November 2024)
  • Scope: Regional focus on the UK, Ireland, and the Nordic regions.
  • Audience: Operators and industry professionals from the region.
  • Content: Gain insights on regional topics like technology, distribution strategies, and hear from top regional tourism leaders.
  • Breakout Sessions: Experience hands-on learning at Edinburgh’s top attractions and tours, with sessions on visitor experience, digital journeys and innovative tour development. In-depth sessions for companies at the beginning of their digital journey and more advanced sessions for people and companies looking to elevate their experience.
  • Networking: With a more intimate setting. you’ll have more time to build deeper connections and create more meaningful interactions with your current and future partners including distributors, tech companies, DMOs and more.
  • Location: Edinburgh, known for its stunning architecture and historic charm
  • Attendees: Approximately 400, fostering an intimate peer-to-peer learning and networking environment.
Key Differences:
  • Global vs. Regional Focus: Valencia is a global event with an international audience, while Edinburgh is a regional event focused on the UK, Ireland, and Nordic regions.
  • Event Size: Valencia hosts about 800 attendees, providing broad networking opportunities, whereas Edinburgh’s 400 attendees create a more intimate, focused environment.
  • Content and Sessions: Valencia features global themes and advanced topics, whereas Edinburgh provides region-specific insights and hands-on experiential learning.
  • Location Experience: Valencia providing a coastal escape and Edinburgh offering historic and iconic attractions.
  • Who Will Be There: The most valuable part of Arival Events is the connections you make and the partnerships you build to grow your business. At Arival | Activate Edinburgh, you’ll engage with key industry players in the UK, Ireland, and Nordic regions. If your business focus is on these areas, Edinburgh is where you need to be. For those targeting broader European or global markets, Arival 360 | Valencia offers the ideal platform to network with international leaders and innovators. 
Why attend both?

With limited opportunities for business development, learning, and networking in our industry, attending both events is a strategic move. By participating in both Edinburgh and Valencia, you maximize your exposure to diverse markets and influential contacts. 

However, if budget constraints or a specific regional focus dictate your decisions, choose the event that best aligns with your primary business goals. Join us in Edinburgh for regional insights or Valencia for global perspectives—or better yet, attend both to fully leverage the potential of Arival’s expansive network.

For service providers such as a restech or ticketing platform, distribution company, or other services including marketing, AI tools, etc., attending both gives you access to attendees from both markets to connect with your current customers and to meet new ones!

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